Global eCommerce payments to exceed $13t by 2030

By Vriti Gothi

Global eCommerce payments are on track to exceed $13 trillion by 2030, rising from $8.3 trillion in 2025, according to the latest findings from Juniper Research. The report highlights that this remarkable 57% growth will be fuelled by emerging economies, with Latin America and the Indian Subcontinent projected to deliver the fastest adoption rates as digital payments rapidly replace cash.

In regions where traditional card penetration has historically been low, the expansion of local payment methods is proving transformative. Digital wallets, bank transfer options, and real-time payments are reshaping consumer access to online shopping. Juniper Research predicts that this growing diversity of payment options will broaden eCommerce accessibility dramatically over the next five years, opening new opportunities for merchants, acquirers, and payments providers.

Nick Maynard, VP of FinTech Market Research at Juniper Research, said, “Identifying and supporting the right local payment methods for each developing market will be critical to enabling international merchant growth, and could make or break eCommerce provider success.”

This highlights a key strategic shift: global players must think beyond card-based ecosystems and adapt to localised consumer behaviours to remain competitive.

Juniper Research warns that differentiation will require a sharper focus on localisation. Vendors must provide global reach while adapting to cultural, regulatory, and consumer-specific preferences in each market. Failure to adopt a nuanced approach risks stagnation or decline, especially as competition intensifies.

For example, while North America and Europe remain mature markets, the real growth lies in emerging economies where digital wallets, QR-code payments, and account-to-account transactions are leapfrogging traditional card systems. Payment providers who invest early in local partnerships and infrastructure will likely capture disproportionate market share.

The new Juniper Research suite delivers one of the most extensive assessments of the eCommerce payments landscape to date, analysing 54,000 data points across 61 countries over a five-year horizon. Its findings reaffirm that the future of payments is both global and hyper-local.

As global commerce shifts increasingly online, providers are under mounting pressure to balance scale with specialisation. To succeed, they must ensure seamless cross-border interoperability while also addressing the unique dynamics of high-growth markets. This balancing act will determine which players emerge as leaders in the next phase of digital commerce.

For FinTechs and incumbents alike, the message is clear: innovation, localisation, and regulatory adaptability are no longer optional—they are strategic imperatives. Those who can deliver a tailored yet scalable payments experience will be best positioned to thrive in the $13 trillion eCommerce future.