IDC Financial Insights commissioned by Episode Six, launched a new report

By Joy Dumasia

According to a new study by IDC Financial Insights commissioned by Episode Six, a payments technology company, 74% of consumer payments will be handled by non-traditional financial service institutions (FSIs) by 2030. This figure increases from 60% in 2020, putting added pressure on incumbents such as banks, insurers and credit unions. The IDC InfoBrief, Future Ready Payments Technology Reshapes the Playing Field for the Industry, highlights that while the payments world is changing, FSI paytech is not, pushing lucrative consumer payment volumes to non-FSIs. 

Factors driving this change include a rise in new (or emerging) digital asset classes, real-time payments, and new point of sale payment options such as Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL): 

• By 2030, 60% of global consumers will have made a transaction using an asset class other than fiat currency. 
• 95% of physical non-cash payments will be through contactless methods and BNPL. BNPL grew 79% compared to 5% for cards in 2020 and is set to continue to grow by 15% annually through 2030. Cards will grow at 4% per year, according to IDC. 
• Regulation is also playing its part, with the study exploring how Open Banking, domestic real-time payments schemes, and CBDCs add pressure to incumbent FSIs by shaking up traditionally safe revenue streams. 

The payments landscape is changing at pace, but the IDC InfoBrief finds that 73% of FSIs globally currently have paytech infrastructures that are not well equipped to handle payments for 2023 and beyond. IDC deemed only 3% of FSIs to have ‘future ready’ paytech, meaning payments infrastructure that enables payments anywhere and everywhere for any possible present and future asset class. Future-ready paytech also gives FSIs the ability to configure and reconfigure payment products to stay ahead of new entrant competition and consumer demands. And while IDC predicts that global FSI spending on paytech will double to US$80.3 billion in 2030 (from US$39.7 billion in 2020), FSIs are not investing enough in the infrastructure that enables them to compete with non-FSIs. Failing to adapt to future-ready paytech will cost the FSI industry US$250 billion in payments revenue. 

Michael Yeo, Associate Research Director at IDC Financial Insights, said: “The world of consumer payments is rapidly evolving; from the way we make them to the companies that handle them. What this change presents is both a challenge and opportunity for incumbent FSIs. Despite the trends which are unfolding, FSIs can fight their displacement from consumer payments by reshaping the role that they fulfil in the payments landscape of tomorrow. To achieve this, their focus and spending must be on future-ready paytech solutions otherwise, they risk continuously playing catch up with digitally native non-FSIs.” 

John Mitchell, CEO of Episode Six, said: “Traditional financial services institutions will continue to lose consumer payments market share and corresponding revenue until they have infrastructure that is able to support new ways to pay. Competition in payments is increasing. There is a land grab taking place for the hearts, minds and wallets of consumers the world over. FSIs need to be able to process value in whatever form consumers demand fiat, crypto and gaming currencies, loyalty points and value denominations that don’t exist today. That requires paytech infrastructure that’s fast to deploy, highly configurable and future-ready. IDC’s data shows that FSIs are investing, but also suggests that they’re focusing on maintaining a quickly diminishing position, rather than ensuring an ability to compete in the future.”