Digital treasury takes centre stage as AI adoption grows

By Puja Sharma

Corporate treasury teams across Europe, the UK and the Middle East are moving away from traditional forecasting towards continuous scenario planning, as geopolitical uncertainty, market volatility and cyber threats redefine financial decision-making, according to J.P. Morgan’s Treasury Outlook 2026.

The report, based on polling of treasury leaders across 26 countries, finds that finance leaders are increasingly prioritising resilience over prediction. Rather than relying on fixed monthly or quarterly planning cycles, organisations are adopting more agile approaches to liquidity management, risk assessment and capital allocation as economic conditions remain uncertain.

Most respondents expect global economic conditions to remain stable or deteriorate during the second half of 2026. In response, treasurers are focusing on maintaining liquidity, strengthening financial flexibility and building risk management strategies that can adapt quickly to changing market conditions instead of taking an overly risk-averse stance.

Cash flow improvement and working capital optimisation emerged as the highest priorities for the next 12 months, closely followed by technology modernisation. The findings also suggest that many organisations expect mergers and acquisitions activity to increase, reinforcing the need to maintain strong liquidity positions and operational flexibility.

Artificial intelligence is also becoming a practical tool within treasury operations rather than an emerging technology under evaluation. The report shows that finance leaders expect AI to deliver the greatest value in improving employee productivity, enhancing forecasting and planning, streamlining reporting, and strengthening fraud detection capabilities.

However, respondents emphasised that successful AI deployment depends on robust data quality, governance frameworks and well-defined business processes. Without these foundations, organisations risk limiting the effectiveness of AI-driven decision-making.

Tokenisation is also gaining traction, although treasury leaders remain focused on tangible business outcomes rather than experimentation. Respondents identified faster payments, reduced settlement delays, improved transaction security and the ability to operate beyond conventional banking cut-off times as the primary benefits expected from tokenised financial infrastructure.

The report concludes that treasury organisations should focus on three strategic priorities over the coming year: disciplined risk management, building strong digital foundations to support innovation, and strengthening operational resilience through enhanced fraud prevention and cybersecurity.

The findings mirror discussions at J.P. Morgan’s EMEA Treasurers Forum, where finance leaders highlighted how geopolitical uncertainty is reshaping budgeting and financial oversight. Rather than relying on periodic financial reviews, treasury teams are increasingly embracing continuous scenario planning to respond more effectively to rapidly changing business conditions.

Aidana Zhakupbekova, COFO at Rydoo, said: “It’s unsurprising that over half of treasurers see geopolitical tensions as their biggest barrier to long-term planning. With the global environment shifting weekly, sometimes daily, a company needs to understand how it might have been hit. CFOs can’t necessarily wait for a month to close or for a quarter to close to do the full business analysis from scratch so decision making needs to become a lot more agile.

“This is where AI is supporting finance departments, offering real time oversight of spending and updating budgets and forecasts accordingly. This visibility is becoming a necessity for managing liquidity and protecting margins.

“And as geopolitical and economic uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on finance departments, CFOs will continue leveraging AI to automate routine tasks like reporting and expense management in order to free up time for more strategic decision making.”